Kentucky Derby 2024: A Look at Early Front-Runners and the Baffert Factor
Any comprehensive guide to the upcoming Kentucky Derby inevitably confronts a notable figure in the horse racing world - the six-time Derby-winning trainer, Bob Baffert. Despite boasting an impressive 18 nominations for the Triple Crown, none of his contenders are set to grace the Churchill Downs track this May. The aftermath of the Medina Spirit controversy has led to Baffert's prohibition from entering any horses in tracks operated by Churchill Downs Inc.
In seasons past, Baffert's horses found new homes to sidestep bans, but this time they remain under his care. Notably absent is the unbeaten Nysos, a horse that would have been a clear favorite in the Kentucky Derby futures market.
Even without the Baffert saga, the Derby picture is far from clear, especially after last year's champion juvenile, Fierceness, suffered a defeat on his seasonal debut.
Attempting to navigate this uncertainty, let's identify the front-runners at this stage, considering the ante-post prices available to those consulting European bookmakers' lists.
Despite the on-paper disappointment of Fierceness being well beaten at 1-5 in the Holy Bull, I'm inclined to overlook that third-placed effort behind Hades. A squeezed start and a slow pace turned the G3 event into a sprint, reminiscent of the 2007 Blue Grass, creating potential for a reversal of fortunes in the Kentucky Derby.
Fierceness, a son of Gun Runner out of a Malibu Moon mare, remains a top contender despite the Holy Bull setback. His Breeders' Cup Juvenile triumph still stands as the best form in the book.
Sierra Leone, a $2.3 million colt, displayed promise in the G2 Remsen Stakes, narrowly losing to Dornoch. With more experience and a chance to reverse the form, Sierra Leone is expected to be competitive.
Locked, representing trainer Todd Pletcher, showed potential in the BC Juvenile, finishing third with an off-the-pace style. Despite missing a recent intended return due to a fever, Locked remains a smart performer likely to improve.
The Remsen Stakes victor, Dornoch, and the runner-up, Sierra Leone, may not have generated enthusiastic headlines initially, but subsequent results have validated the form. Drum Roll Please, beaten in third, went on to win the Jerome Stakes convincingly.
Timberlake, victorious in the Champagne Stakes, demonstrated versatility by winning in sloppy conditions. His wet-track experience could prove advantageous on the road to Churchill Downs.
Hades, who won the Holy Bull, showcased energy in the gallop-out, hinting at a potential for longer trips. Track Phantom, a winner of the Gun Runner and G3 Lecomte Stakes, demonstrated stamina in his victories.
As we delve into the contenders, the intriguing addition of horses from Japan adds another layer of excitement to the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Among the 47 Japanese entries is a son of Dubai Turf winner Real Steel, currently leading Japan's three-year-old dirt crop with an unbeaten record.
As we eagerly anticipate the Derby on May 4, 2024, the plot thickens with each development, and the stage is set for a thrilling race at Churchill Downs.